Historical Results

Do you know the first lesson in investing ?

I learned it in 1965. I used to go to the Boardroom at Merrill Lynch in Boston during my lunch hour to watch the market. I was just learning about investing at the time. Every day I would see this young man sitting there. One day I sat next to him and asked him if he worked in the area. He told me he didn’t work but was a trader. He said he went to the financial library every morning and spent his entire day watching the market. I told him I was just learning about investing and he asked me if I had learned the first lesson in investing. So I asked him what it was. He said it was learning to take a loss. I told him that I had taken losses. He then said, prescription “But have you learned to deliberately take a loss. When you make an investment that is not going the way you thought it would do you sell it and take the loss.” I have never forgotten that lesson.

Why am I talking about taking a loss?

Taking a loss at the right time may be the best decision anyone can make. We tend to stay with a losing investment and hope that it will go back up. Sometimes we wait too long and say well I can’t sell now so I will just wait until it gets back up to what I paid for it and then Sell. Well maybe it will take a long time or never get back to what we paid for it.

I am sure you know the second lesson in investing. Which is when you are invested in something that is going up the way you expected, ride it all the way up. Many people make an excellent investment and get excited when it goes up 10% and sell it. Well maybe they should continue to hold it.

But then, how do you know how long to hold it. That’s where good Market Timing comes in. I say that you shouldn’t try to guess where the top will be before it gets there. Try to identify the point where the investment has gone past the top and is starting down. With good investments this usually happens when the market itself turns down. That’s when my Signals become very valuable.

But people say, “I am in the market for the long term.” Nothing wrong with that concept, but personally I hate to see my investments take a big hit like the one that occurred in October 1987 when the value of portfolios took a 25% drop in one day. Or in the summer of 1998 when they went down 25 % in a few weeks. My clients avoided those drops and were able to repurchase the same mutual funds at much lower prices. In fact we have avoided every Major Drop in the market since I started selling my service in 1978. Just luck? No excellent Market Timing.

A prolonged up market can outperform Market Timing.

This is a true statement, and if you made some comparisons you might find that you would have been better off just staying in the market. But remember this is hindsight. And the Market Timers smile more and outperform the buy and hold crowd because the market does take big drops now and then. The Timers get out early and repurchase when the prices are much lower. They sleep well, and you can’t put a price tag on that.

It’s impossible to get in at the exact bottom or out at the exact top. Seems like everyone is looking for the expert who can look into the future and tell them when the top or bottom is coming. If you haven’t figured that one out yet, let me be the first to tell you that person does not exist. Oh you hear it everyday on the financial programs.

“So and so’ says this market is going up for the next six months and the Dow will go up 2000 points. Or this market is going to crash like it did in 1929 and you better get out now and stock up on dried beans. I won’t give these people the benefit on naming them, but I bet you can name a few. For some reason I can’t seem to be able to look into the future, but I can mathematically identify changes in the direction of the stock market after they have started and close enough to the Tops and Bottoms to make the Signals very valuable.

Are my Signals Perfect?

Of course not. But over the last 40 years, 4 out of 5 trades have yielded positive results. We occasionally get whipsawed and take small losses.

That’s the key, we take small losses. The gains, however, are sometimes very large, because we stay with the up trend for as long as it runs. To be a good market timer you have to be able to control your emotions. You have to believe and rely on the timing system and not say to yourself, this is the wrong time to get in or get out. If the Timing System is good and has a long proven track record, like mine, you have to be able to go with it and not get excited about the daily market fluctuations. You have to stop thinking gee I should have gotten in or out last week. Because last week you didn’t feel that way and only hindsight gives you that 20/20 vision this week.

Do you find it difficult to make investment decisions? Do you have difficulty deciding when to get in or out of an investment? I will tell when to pull the trigger, and if you follow my Signals you will know the right time. I will watch the market for you every day. Just think, if I give you a Signal that turns out to be not profitable, you have someone to blame beside yourself.

Do you have someone to consult with? If you become one of my clients you will be able to consult with me at any time, and it’s included in my $395 annual fee. Try to find a Registered Investment Advisor who will provide you with Market Timing Signals and unlimited free consultations.

Go With The Trend. Don’t Let Your View Of Where You Think The Market Should Go, Rob You Of The Opportunity To Profit From The Market Trend.

You may take some satisfaction in knowing that I use this investment approach and have a personal interest in making sure that it works. You are welcome to trade along with me.

James O. Rohrbach

President

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Are you tired of searching for someone:

  • who can show you how to take the worry out of investing?
  • who can actually pinpoint changes in the direction of the stock market?
  • who will let you trade along with him when he trades?
  • who will promptly notify you by E-mail every time his Stock Market Timing Model issues a Buy or Sell Signal?
  • who would provide this service to the individual investor for a very low fixed annual fee

Mr. Rohrbach developed the RIX (Rohrbach Index) which is available exclusively to his subscribers. Each day the RIX converts the stock market action into numbers that represent the trend of the market. The NYSE RIX triggers a Buy Signal when the RIX reading reaches +12.0 and a Sell Signal when the reading reaches -12.0.

The NASDAQ RIX triggers a Buy Signal when the RIX reading reaches +6.0 and a Sell Signal when the reading reaches -6.0.

It’s that simple and because the readings are mathematical, order and precise, there is no need to try to use subjective interpretations. No guessing, no predicting, and no anticipating. The NYSE RIX has been pinpointing changes in the trend for 40 years and the NASDAQ RIX has been doing it for 10 years. Never again stay too long in a Major Decline or miss a Major Up move. The RIX mathematics makes that impossible. It forces you to take action.

Our Market Timing Models translate the market action into numbers every day. These numbers are very useful in seeing the trend and the approaching trend changes. We call the trend changes Buy and Sell Signals. When we issue a Signal, it is always un-hedged (no prediction’s, no maybe’s, no on-the-other-hand’s, and no what if’s). We know that investors have lost tons of money because they couldn’t see the change in trend; our subscribers did not because they receive these daily readings.

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I do not handle your money, you do.

Do you find it difficult to make investment decisions? Do you have difficulty deciding when to get in or out of an investment? I will tell when to pull the trigger, and if you follow my Signals you will know the right time. I will watch the market for you every day.

Included in my annual subscription:

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It’s your money and nobody cares more about it than you. By now you know that most investment professionals will not tell you when to get out of the stock market.

Never again ride out a Bear Market because someone tells you to stay in the market. This last Bear Market should have convinced you that “Buy and Hold Is Dead.”

Summary of our 43 Year Real-time Buy and Sell Signals

Value of One-time $10, this 000 Investment July 20, help 1970

Assuming Taxes Paid From Another Source

Pennsylvania Mutual Fund $9, sildenafil 233,423

Nicholas Fund $1,418,919

Year Buys Sells Days In Days Out Pa. Mutual % Gain Nicholas
% Gain
1970 2 1 79 85 +23.9 +20.1
1971 2 2 184 181 +45.3 +68.1
1972 2 3 167 198 +27.7 +42.5
1973 2 2 76 289 +17.5 +16.8
1974 3 3 108 257 -5.9 +7.2
1975 4 3 239 126 +89.4 +46.9
1976 3 3 206 159 +37.6 +12.7
1977 4 5 157 208 +25.7 +17.5
1978 4 4 162 203 +20.8 +21.4
1979 5 4 216 149 +21.6 +17.9
1980 2 3 142 223 +60.9 +47.0
1981 4 4 165 200 +4.9 +8.2
1982 2 2 189 176 +46.9 +38.8
1983 3 3 255 110 +34.8 +27.4
1984 3 3 109 256 +2.5 -1.2
1985 3 2 192 173 +24.8 +18.2
1986 2 3 203 162 +11.3 +15.3
1987 3 2 177 188 +18.6 +15.8
1988 2 3 168 196 +13.6 +4.0
1989 3 3 206 159 +13.8 +13.6
1990 3 2 83 282 +5.6 +.3
1991 4 4 90 275 +11.7 +5.6
1992 2 2 204 161 +12.6 +7.4
1993 0 1 309 56 +11.4 +3.3
1994 2 2 66 299 +5.1 +2.2
1995 2 1 295 70 +18.4 +25.5
1996 2 3 237 128 +9.8 +16.4
1997 4 3 248 117 +21.0 +19.9
1998 3 4 164 201 +13.2 +14.6
1999
2
2
45
320
+10.4
-0.2
2000
2
1
108
257
+12.2
+2.4
2001
2
2
278
87
+32.6
-10.2
2002
2
2
215
150
+7.1
-6.5
2003
2
2
325
40
+34.9
+30.7
2004
3
3
291
74
+17.2
+8.8
2005
2
2
270
95
+17.3
+1.9
2006
2
2
288
77
+16.2
+10.5
2007
4
5
234
131
+1.2
-8.5
2008 6 5 176 189 -11.7 -16.7
2009 5 5 279 86 +20.7
+15.7
2010 5 5 254 111 +7.8
+5.1
2011 6 6 249 116 -17.7 -13.6
2012 4 4 292 73 +3 +3.5
Annual Compounded Rate
+17.4% +12.0%

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Future Results may not equal Past Results.

The power of compounding takes over if you have enough time on your side.

We traded these funds until they decided to discontinue telephone transfers. They are, however, representative of the growth funds that were available, and similar results should have been attained using our program with any good growth stock fund. During this time period we avoided every Major Drop in the stock market and we stayed in every Major Up move. Years 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2009 are perfect examples of how the RIX Index keeps us in an up market. It is the power of compounding that will make you wealthy.

2008 was a very difficult year and many investors lost 40-50% of their life savings.

My newsletter was ranked 7th in the country for the year 2008 by the Hulbert Financial Digest.

Notice how good timing has kept us in Major up markets and out of Major declines.

2011 was the worst year we have experienced…